Catching up in 2006

Here are the statistics the BLS has given for this year to date.

Nationwide

2006

Month	Change	Num. Employed	Unemployment Rate
Jan.	+154,000	134,530,000	4.7%
Feb.	+200,000	134,730,000	4.8%
Mar.	+175,000	134,905,000	4.7%
Apr.	+126,000	135,031,000	4.7%
May	+75,000	135,106,000	4.6%

Economic watchers have noted the gain of only 75,000 jobs in May. Economists I've heard on the news have predicted a slowdown in employment uptake for this year. They may see what's occurred in the last couple months as affirming their prediction. I note, however, that a similar thing occurred in January, 2005 when the U.S. gained 76,000 jobs. Looking at the data now it seems like an odd blip.

Month, Year	Change	Num. Employed	Unemployment Rate
Nov., 2004	+133,000	132,235,000	5.4%
Dec., 2004	+160,000	132,395,000	5.4%
Jan., 2005	+76,000	132,471,000	5.2%
Feb., 2005	+265,000	132,736,000	5.4%
Mar., 2005	+140,000	132,876,000	5.1%

The same may happen again. We'll have to see what develops.

Colorado (statewide)

2006

Month	Change	Num. Employed	Unemployment Rate
Jan.	+2,800	2,252,000	4.7%
Feb.	+2,900	2,254,900	4.3%
Mar.	+9,300	2,264,200	4.3%
Apr.	+500	2,264,700	4.3%

Denver Metro Area

2006

Month	Change	Num. Employed	Unemployment Rate
Jan.	-27,200	1,184,300	5.3%
Feb.	+3,600	1,187,900	4.8%
Mar.	+7,300	1,195,200	4.8%
Apr.	+10,100	1,205,300	4.4%

Boulder County

2006

Month	Change	Num. Employed	Unemployment Rate
Jan.	-4,600	159,100	4.4%
Feb.	+2,100	161,200	4.0%
Mar.	+1,000	162,200	4.0%
Apr.	+600	162,800	3.6%

What happened in Colorado from 2001-2005

Colorado (statewide)

The decline in employment began earlier here than it did nationally. The high point was in December, 2000 when 2,249,600 people had jobs and the unemployment rate was 2.6%. The decline began in January, 2001 and continued through July, 2003. By this point Colorado lost 103,600 jobs, and the unemployment rate ended up at 6.3%.

The employment recovery began slowly in August, 2003, but Colorado ended 2003 with a net loss of 19,900 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.9%.

Colorado gained 46,800 jobs in 2004. The unemployment rate went down to 5.5%. Colorado gained 48,000 jobs in 2005. The unemployment rate went down to 4.8%.

Colorado finally broke even with its previous employment high point (in December, 2000) in January of this year–a 5-year span. The unemployment rate was 4.7% at this point. Comparing this with the unemployment rate in Dec., 2000 (2.6%) we can see, again, the employment market has changed from what it once was.

Here are the employment and unemployment statistics for 2005.

Month	Change	Num. Employed	Unemployment Rate
Jan.	-600	2,200,600	5.2%
Feb.	+7,600	2,208,200	5.2%
Mar.	+4,900	2,213,100	5.2%
Apr.	+2,300	2,215,400	5.3%
May	+2,500	2,217,900	5.2%
June	+4,400	2,222,300	5.1%
July	+6,000	2,228,300	5.0%
Aug.	+500	2,228,800	5.0%
Sept.	+8,100	2,236,900	5.0%
Oct.	+2,800	2,239,700	4.9%
Nov.	+1,900	2,241,600	4.8%
Dec.	+7,600	2,249,200	4.8%

The Denver Metro Area

Denver has been having a rough time of it since 2001. Like with the state of Colorado, Denver's high point in employment was in December, 2000 when 1,239,700 people had jobs and the unemployment rate was 2.3%. The decline began in January, 2001.

The Denver Metro Area (DMA) went through a series of peaks in unemployment. By January, 2002 87,200 jobs had been lost, and the unemployment rate rose to 7.0%–a dramatic 4.7-point increase in a year! The unemployment rate then started to dip. By May it got down to 5.6%, and then started to rise. By June, 2003 the employment numbers had improved some. There were now 71,200 fewer jobs than there were in December, 2000 (instead of 87,200 fewer), but the unemployment rate hit a peak of 7.1%. I can only tell that because the unemployment rate started to decline. The unemployment rate went on the decline after that, but employment kept falling. It's logical to conclude that since this is a regional survey, people were finding jobs elsewhere.

In January, 2004 the Denver Metro Area (DMA) hit bottom. It had lost 104,500 jobs, about as many as were lost at the lowest point for the whole state, and the unemployment rate was 6.8%. The jobs recovery began at this point. Every year since has been a mixed bag, some up months, some down months, but it has consistently ended the year on the upside, making modest gains.

The DMA gained 21,100 jobs in 2004, and ended the year with an unemployment rate of 5.6%. In 2005 the DMA gained 25,400 jobs, ending the year with an unemployment rate of 4.6%.

Denver has made up more than half of the jobs it has lost, but to date there are still 34,400 fewer jobs in the Denver Metro Area than there were in December, 2000.

Here are the employment and unemployment statistics for 2005.

Month	Change	Num. Employed	Unemployment Rate
Jan.	-31,600	1,154,500	5.7%
Feb.	+7,300	1,161,800	5.8%
Mar.	+8,800	1,170,600	5.8%
Apr.	+9,800	1,180,400	5.4%
May	+9,600	1,190,000	5.1%
June	+11,500	1,201,500	5.4%
July	-3,100	1,198,400	5.2%
Aug.	+900	1,199,300	4.9%
Sept.	+3,800	1,203,100	5.0%
Oct.	+200	1,203,300	4.6%
Nov.	+4,000	1,207,300	4.7%
Dec.	+4,200	1,211,500	4.6%

Boulder County

Like Denver and the state of Colorado, Boulder County's high point in employment was December, 2000 when 171,500 people had jobs, and the unemployment rate was 2.0%. The decline started in January, 2001. The unemployment rate hit a high of 6.7% in January, 2002–a dramatic 4.7-point increase in just one year. By this point 12,000 jobs had been lost. The unemployment rate tapered off from there, but the employment numbers continued to go down, reaching a low point in August, 2003. By this point 18,600 jobs had been lost, but the unemployment rate had gone down to 5.8%. Since the Boulder County survey is regional, it's logical to conclude that the reason for this is that people left found work outside Boulder County. to find work elsewhere.

The jobs recovery for Boulder County began in September, 2003, though it ended the year with a net loss of 3,000 jobs.

Boulder County gained 4,600 jobs in 2004, ending the year with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. It gained 2,200 jobs in 2005, ending the year with an unemployment rate of 3.8%.

To date Boulder County has regained more than half the jobs it lost, but it still has 8,700 fewer jobs than it did in December, 2000.

Here are the employment and unemployment statistics for 2005.

Month	Change	Num. Employed	Unemployment Rate
Jan.	-4,700	156,800	4.9%
Feb.	+2,200	159,000	5.0%
Mar.	+700	159,700	5.0%
Apr.	+1,100	160,800	4.6%
May	+600	161,400	4.4%
June	-700	160,700	4.8%
July	-1,900	158,800	4.6%
Aug.	-400	158,400	4.3%
Sept.	+3,300	161,700	4.2%
Oct.	+1,300	163,000	3.9%
Nov.	+200	163,200	4.0%
Dec.	+500	163,700	3.8%

What happened in the U.S. from 2001-2005

This is review material, just to give some background. The economic downturn and recovery we went through was longer than people have been used to. Below I'll explain what the job data shows happened.

For the U.S. as a whole the downward trend in the job market began in March, 2001. The high point in the national job market was in the prior month (February), with 132,551,000 people employed.

From February through August the U.S. lost 775,000 jobs, due to the economic recession that had hit. From September, 2001 through May, 2002 the U.S. lost another 1,446,000 jobs. I attribute this to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the subsequent military campaign in Afghanistan. I'll just note that it's been my observation from looking at past employment data, corrolating it with military campaigns, that almost anytime we have a major military deployment somewhere in the world, we see a loss of employment here in the U.S. I chose May as the endpoint for this measurement because the data shows the rate of decline in the employment market becomes less steep after this.

In total, from February, 2001 to May, 2002 the U.S. lost 2,221,000 jobs. The unemployment rate went from 4.2% in February, 2001 to 5.8%.

The employment market continued its decline through August, 2003. The unemployment rate reached a high of 6.3% in June, 2003. By August the U.S. had lost a total of 2,754,000 jobs. Note that most of the job losses occurred from 2001 to 2002.

In September, 2003 the job market began its recovery. 2003 ended the year by breaking even. It had gained about as many jobs in the latter part of the year as had been lost earlier in the year. 2003 ended the year with an unemployment rate of 5.7%. The upward employment trend continued from there on out.

In 2004 the U.S. had a gain of 2,097,000 jobs, and ended the year with an unemployment rate of 5.4%. The U.S. broke even with the previous high point (February, 2001) in February, 2005. At that point the unemployment rate was still 5.4%. If we compare the unemployment rate with what it was in February, 2001–4.2%–we can see that even though the number of jobs evened out, the job market was different from what it was 4 years before.

Back around 2000/2001, economists said that there were about 150,000 people who entered the job market in the U.S. every month. As time has gone on this has declined. The last I heard from an economist, they estimate now that only about 100,000 people enter the job market every month. What this means, though, is that while the job market was in decline from 2001 to 2003 about 4 million new workers entered the job market. This would probably explain the higher unemployment rate in Feb., 2005 vs. Feb., 2001.

2005 was the year that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas. Katrina hit in late August. Rita hit in late September. The employment data for the U.S. showed a dip in employment in September and October. But it picked up again in the following months.

The U.S. gained 1,981,000 jobs in 2005, and ended the year with an unemployment rate of 4.9%. Obviously this wasn't as good as 2004, but it came pretty close. I think the disparity can be attributed to the devastating hurricane damage and the large disruption it caused in the lives of people and businesses.

From the data I have as of this writing (in 2006), the U.S. has had a net gain of 2,555,000 jobs above and beyond the previous high point in February, 2001.

Here's a table of the employment data for 2005:

Month	Change	Num. Employed	Unemployment Rate
Jan.	+76,000	132,471,000	5.2%
Feb.	+265,000	132,736,000	5.4%
Mar.	+140,000	132,876,000	5.1%
Apr.	+228,000	133,104,000	5.1%
May	+106,000	133,210,000	5.1%
June	+166,000	133,376,000	5.0%
July	+241,000	133,617,000	5.0%
Aug.	+175,000	133,792,000	4.9%
Sept.	+48,000	133,840,000	5.1%
Oct.	+37,000	133,877,000	4.9%
Nov.	+354,000	134,231,000	5.0%
Dec.	+145,000	134,376,000	4.9%

Introduction

I've brought over a post I made to an old blog I tried to create a couple years ago, but didn't work out. The typical reports I'll post here are monthly (I use the term loosely) updates on how the national, Colorado (statewide), Denver Metro Area, and Boulder County job markets are doing, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I don't always get around to doing these reports on the month, every month.

I'll talk about factoids I've heard on the news or the web if I find anything that would be newsworthy, no matter the geographic area. I'll also post links to any articles that I think provide valuable job market analysis.