Introduction

I've brought over a post I made to an old blog I tried to create a couple years ago, but didn't work out. The typical reports I'll post here are monthly (I use the term loosely) updates on how the national, Colorado (statewide), Denver Metro Area, and Boulder County job markets are doing, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I don't always get around to doing these reports on the month, every month.

I'll talk about factoids I've heard on the news or the web if I find anything that would be newsworthy, no matter the geographic area. I'll also post links to any articles that I think provide valuable job market analysis.

Analysis of the Economic Downturn

The economic Policy Institute recently posted some interesting economic figures on their site at www.jobwatch.org. I did my own analysis on them to see where different states are at, and what they've been through.

The report I'll highlight is one called "Unemployment rate by state, 32 months after start of recession". They give a chart that's divided by region and shows how the states fared as of the "official" start of the recession in Mar., 2001, and how they've fared recently, as of Nov., 2003. To give a comparison, I thought it would be interesting to rate the states from best job numbers to worst, then and now. So first up will be the Mar., 2001 stats, followed by Nov., 2003, with best to worst rankings for each.

March, 2001

Rank	State	Unemployment Rate
1	North Dakota	2.7%
2	Connecticut	2.8%
2	Virginia	2.8%
3	Colorado	2.9%
4	Nebraska	3.0%
5	Iowa	3.1%
5	Massachusetts	3.1%
5	New Hampshire	3.1%
6	South Dakota	3.2%
7	Minnesota	3.4%
7	Vermont	3.4%
8	Delaware	3.5%
8	Georgia	3.5%
8	Maine	3.5%
8	New Jersey	3.5%
9	Ohio	3.6%
9	Oklahoma	3.6%
10	Maryland	3.7%
10	Wyoming	3.7%
11	Indiana	3.9%
11	Utah	3.9%
12	Tennessee	4.0%
13	Arizona	4.1%
13	Kansas	4.1%
14	Florida	4.2%
14	Hawaii	4.2%
14	New York	4.2%
14	Texas	4.2%
15	Missouri	4.3%
15	Pennsylvania	4.3%
15	Wisconsin	4.3%
16	Idaho	4.6%
16	Montana	4.6%
16	New Mexico	4.6%
17	Nevada	4.7%
18	Arkansas	4.8%
18	California	4.8%
18	Michigan	4.8%
18	North Carolina	4.8%
18	Rhode Island	4.8%
18	West Virginia	4.8%
19	Alabama	4.9%
20	Kentucky	5.0%
21	Illinois	5.1%
22	Mississippi	5.3%
23	Oregon	5.4%
24	Louisiana	5.9%
24	Washington	5.9%
25	Alaska	6.2%
26	Wash., D.C.	6.3%

Overall unemployment rate was 4.2%

Unemployment by region:

Northeast: 3.8%
Midwest: 4.2%
South: 4.3%
West: 4.7%

November, 2003

These are the stats and rankings as of Nov., 2003.

Note: Amt. of Increase column shows the amount the unemployment rate increased between Mar., 2001 to Nov. 2003. If the amount is negative, it means unemployment decreased to a point that's less than its former level in 2001 (ex.: if a state's unemployment rate was 4.6% in 2001, and was 4.3% in November, 2003, the "Amt. of Increase" figure would be -0.3 for that state).

Rank	State	Unemployment Rate	Amt. of Increase	Former Rank
1	North Dakota	3.2%	0.5	1
2	South Dakota	3.3%	0.1	6
3	Nebraska	3.6%	0.6	4
3	Virginia	3.6%	0.8	2
4	Vermont	4.0%	0.6	7
4	Wyoming	4.0%	0.3	10
5	Delaware	4.1%	0.6	8
5	Hawaii	4.1%	-0.1	14
6	Georgia	4.2%	0.7	8
6	Iowa	4.2%	1.1	5
6	Maryland	4.2%	0.5	10
7	Montana	4.3%	-0.3	16
7	New Hampshire	4.3%	1.2	5
8	Nevada	4.5%	-0.2	17
9	Minnesota	4.6%	1.2	7
10	Florida	4.7%	0.5	14
10	Kansas	4.7%	0.6	13
11	Arizona	4.8%	0.7	13
12	Maine	4.9%	1.4	8
12	Rhode Island	4.9%	0.1	18
12	Utah	4.9%	1.0	11
13	Connecticut	5.0%	2.2	2
13	Indiana	5.0%	1.1	11
13	Mississippi	5.0%	-0.3	22
13	Missouri	5.0%	0.7	15
13	Wisconsin	5.0%	0.7	15
14	Idaho	5.1%	0.5	16
15	Pennsylvania	5.2%	0.9	15
16	Oklahoma	5.3%	1.7	9
17	Massachusetts	5.4%	2.3	5
18	Kentucky	5.5%	0.5	20
18	Louisiana	5.5%	-0.4	24
18	New Jersey	5.5%	2.0	8
19	Colorado	5.6%	2.7	3
19	West Virginia	5.6%	0.8	18
20	Ohio	5.7%	2.1	9
20	Tennessee	5.7%	1.7	12
21	Alabama	5.8%	0.9	19
22	Arkansas	6.0%	1.2	18
22	New Mexico	6.0%	1.4	16
23	New York	6.1%	1.9	14
24	North Carolina	6.2%	1.4	18
25	Texas	6.3%	2.1	14
26	California	6.4%	1.6	18
27	Wash., D.C.	6.6%	0.3	26
28	Illinois	6.7%	1.6	21
29	Washington	6.8%	0.9	24
30	South Carolina	6.9%	2.0	19
31	Michigan	7.0%	2.2	18
32	Oregon	7.3%	1.9	23
33	Alaska	7.5%	1.3	25

Overall unemployment was 5.9% (increase of 1.7 since 2001)

Unemployment by region:

Northeast: 5.5% (increase of 1.7)
Midwest: 5.6% (increase of 1.6)
South: 4.8% (increase of 1.0)
West: 6.1% (increase of 1.4)

Analysis

One of the effects on "ranking" between the 2001 and 2003 lists was the shifting of the highest and lowest unemployment rates. In 2001, the lowest unemployment rate was 2.7% in North Dakota. Today, North Dakota is still "the leader", but now at 3.2%. The highest was 6.3% (Wash., D.C.), but is now 7.5% (Alaska).

Of the top-10 states, with the best employment markets in 2001, 5 were in the Midwest, 3 were in the Northeast, 1 was in the South, and 1 was in the West.

In November, 2003, of the top-10 states, 4 were in the Midwest (the top 3 are all in the Midwest), 3 were in the South, 1 was in the Northeast, 1 was in the West, and 1 was in the Pacific (Hawaii).

I did detailed analyses of the changes that have occurred over the period the survey covers.

Most of the states that were in the top-10 ranking in 2001 were still in the top-10 in November (12 out of 19). They were (in alphabetical order):

Delaware, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming.

5 of these states are in the Midwest, 4 are in the South, 2 are in the Northeast, and 1 is in the West. 4 of these states made the "most stable" list. 2 made the "most improved" list (see below).

The states that dropped out of the top-10 ranking were (in alphabetical order): Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Ohio, and Oklahoma.

4 of these states are in the Northeast, 1 is in the Midwest, 1 is in the South, and 1 is in the West. All of them but 2 (Maine and Oklahoma) made the "worst affected" list (see below).

The top 10 most improved states

You can already tell which states were performing the best just by looking at the 2003 list, but there were some interesting trends going on in some other states, most not in the top 10. A few states managed to lower their unemployment rates, while others managed to do "not-so-bad" by still losing jobs, but losing less than many other states. You could say these were the top gaining states.

Sorted according to best improvement (negative amount of change means employment increased from 2001):

State	Current Rank	Current Unemployment	Old Rank	Old Unemployment Rate	Amt. of Change
Louisiana	18	5.5%	24	5.9%	-0.4
Mississippi	13	5.0%	22	5.3%	-0.3
Montana	7	4.3%	16	4.6%	-0.3
Nevada	8	4.5%	17	4.7%	-0.2
Hawaii	9	4.1%	14	4.2%	-0.1
Rhode Island	12	4.9%	18	4.8%	0.1
South Dakota	2	3.3%	6	3.2%	0.1
Wash., D.C.	27	6.6%	26	6.3%	0.3
Wyoming	4	4.0%	4	3.7%	0.3
North Dakota	1	3.2%	1	2.7%	0.5

Interesting. As the saying goes, "They had no place to go but up." Most of the top gainers were ones who were towards the bottom of the list in 2001. The ones who were towards the top lost some ground in terms of their employment rates.

Of these states, 3 are in the South, 3 are in the West, 2 are in the Midwest, 1 is in the Northeast, and 1 is in the Pacific (Hawaii).

Of the states that actually reduced their unemployment rates, 2 are in the South, 2 are in the West, and 1 is in the Pacific (again, Hawaii).

The top 10 most stable states

Some states just basically stood in place through this period. Their unemployment rates increased, but relative to the other states, they didn't move much from where they were 3 years ago. I guess one could say they managed to "move with the economy" (sorted by difference between old ranking and new, and secondarily by current unemployment rate):

State	Current Ranking	Current Unemployment	Old Ranking	Old Unemployment Rate	Amt. of Change
North Dakota	1	3.2%	1	2.7%	0.5
Pennsylvania	15	5.2	15	4.3%	0.9
Illinois	28 (6th to last)	6.7%	21 (6th to last)	5.1%	1.6
Nebraska	3	3.6%	4	3.0%	0.6
Virginia	3	3.6%	2	2.8%	0.8
Iowa	6	4.2%	5	3.1%	1.1
Utah	12	4.9%	11	3.9%	1.0
West Virginia	19	5.6%	18	4.8%	0.8
Wash., D.C.	27	6.6%	26	6.3%	0.3
Alaska	33 (last)	7.5%	25 (2nd to last)	6.2%	1.3

I did some relative rankings because the 2003 list had more enumerations in the Rank column than the 2001 list had.

These states exhibited the most stability in their job markets by not changing that much. This can be a good thing, or a bad thing, depending on where they started in 2001. The "darling" of this list is North Dakota, which even in November had a relatively low 3.2% unemployment rate.

Of these states, 4 are in the Midwest, 3 are in the South, 2 are in the West, and 1 is in the Northeast.

The top 10 worst affected states

Oh how the mighty have fallen! Some states suffered a severe downward swing in employment, while for the others it was a bit more mild (sorted by states most severely affected, to least affected, relatively speaking (according to the Amt. of Change column)):

State	Current Rank	Current Unemployment	Old Rank	Old Unemployment Rate	Amt. of Change
Colorado	19	5.6%	3	2.9%	2.7
Massachusetts	17	5.4%	5	3.1%	2.3
Connecticut	13	5.0%	2	2.8%	2.2
Michigan	31	7.0%	18	4.8%	2.2
Ohio	20	5.7%	9	3.6%	2.1
Texas	23	6.3%	14	4.2%	2.1
New Jersey	18	5.5%	5	3.5%	2.0
South Carolina	30	6.9%	19	4.9%	2.0
New York	23	6.1%	14	4.2%	1.9
Oregon	32	7.3%	23	5.4%	1.9

Half the list used to be very near the top of the 2001 list. The other half was already near the bottom. Now most of them are near the bottom.

Of these states 4 are in the Northeast, 2 are in the Midwest, 2 are in the South, and 2 are in the West.

A fact that may surprise you is that California did not make this list. Despite all the hue and cry about California doing so badly, it actually did better in terms of employment stability than any of the states in this list. Its unemployment rate increased by 1.6 to 6.4% (from 4.8%).